Global trade withstands tariff turbulence – DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, 2025 Special Update
- barboraarendasova
- Oct 17
- 3 min read
Global trade is holding strong - even as U.S. tariffs hit highs not seen since the 1930s. DHL and New York University's Stern School of Business have released a special update to the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, offering the first systematic assessment of how international trade and business investment are reacting to shifting U.S. trade policy under President Trump's second term. This edition draws on over 20 million data points from more than 25 sources to provide a comprehensive overview of the changing landscape of globalization and global trade.
The online version features interactive charts with country- and region-level analysis, helping readers spot patterns relevant to their own countries and companies. The data updates for this edition were completed on September 30, 2025, and encompass developments up to June–August 2025 for trade, greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI), and mergers & acquisitions (M&A) activity, as well as results through 2024 for other types of international flows.
This edition of the Tracker focuses on three key questions:
(1) How are policy shocks affecting the growth of international flows?
(2) Is geopolitical rivalry fracturing the world economy?
(3) Are international flows becoming more regional?
The data indicates that a reversal of globalization is a risk but not a current reality.
Key takeaways
1. Tariff increases prompted trade forecast downgrades for 2025 and 2026, but global trade is still expected to grow at a similar pace over the 2025–29 period as it did over the past decade. The steepest forecast downgrade was for North America, and all regions saw downgrades except South & Central America and Middle East & North Africa.
2. Global trade in goods grew faster during the first half of 2025 than in any half-year since 2010 except during the pandemic. U.S. buyers rushed to import ahead of tariff increases and China offset lower exports to the U.S. with higher exports to other markets.
3. International investment shows mixed signals. The latest data indicates no pattern of companies redirecting investment from foreign to domestic markets, but uncertainty does appear to have deterred some cross-border investment, especially smaller transactions and new investment announcements during the second quarter of 2025.
4. U.S.–China decoupling continues with tariffs accelerating a decline in direct trade ties between the U.S. and China. The share of U.S.-reported imports coming directly from China plummeted to only 9% over the first seven months of 2025, down from 13% a year earlier and 22% in 2017.
5. Geopolitical shifts in global flows remain limited. Most of the world has not substantially reoriented its international activity along geopolitical lines. However, a modest trend toward more trade among geopolitical allies resumed in the first half of 2025, after a pause in 2024.
6. Most business is already between friendly countries, suggesting that de-risking might lead to smaller shifts in global flows than many presume. In 2024, twenty times more M&A deals, nine times more greenfield investments, and three times more goods trade happened among close allies than between geopolitical rivals.
7. Business has not become more regional. During the first half of 2025, goods trade traversed the longest average distance on record (4,990 km) and the share taking place inside major world regions declined to a new low of 50.7%. Greenfield investment has also become less regional, while M&A shows a stable level of regionalization. 8. The DHL Global Connectedness Index shows no retreat from international to domestic activity through 2024 based on 14 types of trade, capital, information, and people flows. The index reached a record high level in 2022 and has not changed appreciably since then.
Download a full report HERE
Image source: group.dhl.com
