Hapag-Lloyd 9M 2025: Volume Growth Amid Margin Compression in a Volatile Market
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In the first nine months of 2025, Hapag-Lloyd AG delivered moderate revenue growth and solid transport volume expansion, but experienced significant pressure on profitability as freight rates softened and operating costs remained elevated. Group revenue increased slightly year-on-year to EUR 14.35 billion, supported primarily by higher transport volumes rather than pricing effects. Container volumes rose by 9.1% to 10.2 million TEU, reflecting resilient demand across key trades despite ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. However, the average freight rate declined to USD 1,397 per TEU, underscoring the continued normalization of pricing following the elevated rate environment of previous years.
This shift had a visible impact on earnings. EBITDA fell to EUR 2.49 billion compared to EUR 3.30 billion in the same period of 2024, while EBIT declined to EUR 809 million from EUR 1.78 billion. The EBITDA margin compressed to 17.4%, reflecting a combination of lower rates, higher vessel operating costs, and operational inefficiencies linked to global disruptions.
One of the key operational themes of 2025 has been network restructuring. The launch of the Gemini Cooperation with Maersk in February introduced a redesigned East–West service network focused on improving schedule reliability. While the cooperation is strategically aimed at achieving service reliability levels of around 90%, the transition phase generated start-up costs and operational adjustments that weighed on short-term profitability. At the same time, diversions around the Cape of Good Hope due to continued Red Sea security risks have extended transit times and increased fuel consumption, adding structural cost pressure.
The Terminal & Infrastructure segment continued to grow in revenue terms, reaching EUR 335 million, reflecting Hapag-Lloyd’s broader strategy of vertical integration and greater control over key nodes in the supply chain. However, earnings in this segment softened slightly, indicating that terminal operations are not entirely insulated from broader market dynamics.
From a market perspective, global container throughput increased by approximately 4.4% during the first eight months of the year, but freight rate volatility remained high. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index fluctuated significantly and remained below prior-year levels at the end of September. Meanwhile, fleet expansion continues to reshape supply fundamentals. The global order book now represents more than a quarter of existing capacity, with net fleet growth expected to approach 7% in 2025. For shippers and forwarders, this sustained capacity injection suggests that structural rate pressure may persist into 2026 unless demand accelerates meaningfully.
Despite lower earnings, Hapag-Lloyd’s balance sheet remains solid. The equity ratio stands at 61%, and cash and cash equivalents amount to EUR 3.9 billion. Free cash flow remained positive at EUR 1.26 billion, demonstrating continued cash-generating ability even in a softer rate environment. Net debt increased compared to year-end 2024, largely reflecting dividend distributions and ongoing investment in fleet modernization, but leverage remains manageable by historical industry standards.
Looking ahead, the company narrowed its full-year guidance and now expects EBITDA between EUR 2.8 and 3.2 billion and EBIT between EUR 0.5 and 1.0 billion. The outlook assumes moderate volume growth and further normalization of freight rates, alongside slightly lower bunker prices. However, management continues to highlight elevated uncertainty related to geopolitical tensions, Red Sea routing risks, and evolving global trade policies.
For supply chain decision-makers, the 9M 2025 performance illustrates a market that has clearly transitioned away from the extraordinary profitability of the post-pandemic years. Volume growth alone is no longer sufficient to sustain margins in the face of rising capacity and operational disruptions. Competitive differentiation is increasingly tied to reliability, network design, and financial resilience. In this environment, carriers with strong balance sheets and strategic alliances are better positioned to navigate volatility while maintaining service performance.
Image source: hapag-lloyd.com